July PMI showed: the index fluctuated slightly, the economy was running smoothly and the trend was n

China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 51.4% in July 2017, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the National Bureau of Statistics Service Survey Center. But overall, the index fell less, for 10 consecutive months to maintain more than 51%, in recent years, the relatively high level.

July PMI showed: the index fluctuated slightly, the economy was running smoothly and the trend was not changed

The index is down, on the one hand because the current index level has been relatively high, the volatility is difficult to avoid; on the other hand also has obvious seasonal characteristics, nowadays high temperature and rainy weather and some provinces and cities floods, short-term production and business activities have a certain impact The From the enterprise survey point of view, most companies reflect the production and operation in good condition, orders are more ideal, the business is more full, the price has increased. Comprehensive index movements and business surveys, we believe that the basic trend of economic stability has not changed, stable and good momentum is still in development. But the market price increase is worth paying attention to, macro-control need to maintain a strategic strength to keep steady progress.

The basic steady situation has not changed. First, the overall production and business activities do not fluctuate. Production index fell slightly, but still maintained at 53% higher level, higher than the same period last year 1.5 percentage points. According to our survey, mainly due to high temperature and rainy weather factors, business overhaul, resulting in production and business activities have slowed. Small and medium-sized enterprises are affected by the seasonal factors are more obvious, PMI index has come down, but large enterprises in recent years due to speed up the transformation and upgrading, access to a stable development base, and not subject to significant seasonal factors, PMI index rose slightly close to 53 %. Second, the industry rebounded to the basic situation has not changed. Of the 21 industry sectors surveyed, most industry indices remained above 50%, with only six in less than 50%.

Steady and good momentum to continue to develop. First, the market demand is better, business orders continue to improve the situation. In July, the new orders index fell slightly, but remained at around 53%, higher than the same period last year more than 2 percentage points. Although the new export orders index fluctuated, but for 9 consecutive months to maintain more than 50%. Second, the economic operation of synergy is better. With the production capacity, to inventory activities continue to promote the market supply and demand balance, supply and demand to maintain moderate growth, production index and the new orders index remained at about 53%, the gap between the two narrowed to 1 percentage point, at a more reasonable status. Third, social confidence is enough, the enterprise is expected to be good. Enterprise production and business activities expected to rise 0.4 percentage points, reaching more than 59%. Corporate procurement is more active, the purchase index has increased, higher than the same period last year more than 2 percentage points. Fourth, the industrial structure in-depth optimization, the old and new growth momentum continues to accelerate. In July, the PMI index of the high-tech industry and the equipment manufacturing industry dropped, but the leading position and role in the manufacturing industry were higher than the overall level of the manufacturing industry by more than 1 percentage point. Traditional industry PMI index is basically stable, but the index level is lower than the overall level of manufacturing 1 percentage points or more. "A high and one low" contrast, reflecting the transformation of the old and new economic growth momentum continues to accelerate.

Increasing market prices need to be concerned. From the PMI point of view, in July, corporate purchase price and ex-factory prices were significantly increased, especially in the purchase price of the most obvious increase. The purchase price index in December, 2016 in December reached the stage high, was close to 70%, followed by 5 consecutive months down in May this year, down to 50%, the last two months of continuous rebound in July rose significantly accelerated, Up 7.5 percentage points from the previous month, reaching 57.9%. The purchase price index rose faster, but the ex-factory price index rose by 3.6 percentage points, the index level was 52.7%, with the purchase price index gap widened to more than 5 percentage points. This trend continues, although the upstream industry benefits will be improved, but the downstream industry costs will increase significantly, the benefits of decline is not conducive to the coordinated development of enterprises is not conducive to economic stability.

Macro - control to maintain the strategic strength to maintain steady progress. Since last year, the economic operation continued to be smooth and good, macroeconomic regulation and control to grasp the stage of economic development characteristics, standing in the economic cycle and structural optimization and upgrading point of view, to maintain strategic strength, insist on steady progress, will keep the economy Stable and healthy development, to promote the structural reform of the supply side, to maintain the systemic financial risk of the bottom line, improve the quality and efficiency of economic operation, multiple objectives to take into account, to ensure that the economy is stable, long-term sustainable growth of the future accumulation of new growth momentum And open new growth space.